Part of CNS 8.0 / Grounded Dialectical Orthesis

15 — Risk Register and Failure Modes

15 — Risk Register and Failure Modes

Risk 1 — Reverting to verification/ranking

Symptom: final output is top worlds or claim labels but no synthesized SNO.

Mitigation: every run must emit SNO lineage and synthesis status.

Risk 2 — LLM judgments

Symptom: an LLM judge decides which narrative is true.

Mitigation: LLMs can propose or render; proof gates and calibrated models decide promotion categories.

Risk 3 — Predicate overfit

Symptom: latent predicates explain training contradictions but fail held-out examples.

Mitigation: MDL penalty, held-out synthetic contexts, grounding gates, false predicate rate.

Risk 4 — Access-state misuse

Symptom: missing records are treated as evidence.

Mitigation: access-state critic; separate absence-of-evidence from evidence-of-absence.

Risk 5 — Round-trip drift

Symptom: synthesized text re-grounds into a different logic state.

Mitigation: orthesis loop; $\chi_{LL}$ threshold.

Risk 6 — Topology theater

Symptom: topology terms appear but metrics are not used in decisions.

Mitigation: make beta-1, holonomy residual, and topology diagnostics part of acceptance criteria or remove them.

Risk 7 — Grounding destroys synthesis

Symptom: system becomes conservative fact checking and never creates new SNOs.

Mitigation: preserve Synthesizer and predicate invention; classify hypotheses separately instead of blocking all novelty.

Risk 8 — Synthesis hides contradiction

Symptom: fluent narrative erases unresolved conflict.

Mitigation: residual contradiction section required in audit report.

Risk 9 — Prior-art soup

Symptom: doc reads like a collection of known systems.

Mitigation: keep the SNO synthesis flow visible and evaluate module interactions/ablations.

Risk 10 — Dataset leakage

Symptom: labels or synthetic generator parameters appear in runtime.

Mitigation: oracle-boundary audit, split hashes, prompt scans.

Risk 11 — Citation hallucination

Symptom: evidence IDs do not resolve.

Mitigation: reject invalid inputs; citation validity required check.

Risk 12 — Calibration laundering

Symptom: likely claims are written as strict claims.

Mitigation: output category enforcement and confidence language table.

Step 16 of 39 in CNS 8.0 / Grounded Dialectical Orthesis